THE EXPORTS OF SOME CROPS FROM USA. A PANEL DATA APPROACH
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Authors:
• Mihaela SIMIONESCU, PhD, email: mihaela_mb1@yahoo.com, Afiliation: Romanian Academy, Institute for Economic ForecastingPages:
• 79|93 -
Keywords: crop, exports, random-effects model, panel VAR model
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Abstract:
The main objective of this paper is to determine the impact of crop productivity and price index on some crops exports (feed grains, food grains, food grains, oil crops, vegetables and fruits- cross-sections) in USA during 2000-2013. Due to the short data set available for USA, a panel data approach is chosen. There are significant differences between US states regarding the plant exports. The crop exports have increased in USA with 184.31% in 2013 compared to 2000. California is the biggest crop exporter from USA, plant exports increasing with almost 170% in 2013 with respect to 2000. The differences across crops influence the crops’ exports. The estimated random-effects models showed that the prices had a higher impact than productivity on the crop exports. Moreover, the panel VAR model gave more details. In the first period, 59.51% of the variation in crops’ exports is due to changes in export, while 37.92% of the variation in exports is due to changes in prices. The influence of prices on exports increases up to 5th lag. Starting with the 6th lag, the prices influence decreases slowly till a variation of 37.34% of the exports due to prices modifications. The productivity impact is quite low, the maximum being registered in the second period (3.77% of the variation in exports is due to productivity changes).
