FORECASTING SEASONAL TIME SERIES WITH CALOT MODEL
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Authors:
• Calcedonia ENACHE, email: calcedoniaenache@yahoo.com, Afiliation: The Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest, RomaniaPages:
• 155|162 -
Keywords: Calot model; autocorrelation function; income from agriculture; seasonal time series; forecasting
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Abstract:
Activities with a variation trend depending on the change of seasons are frequent in agriculture. For such phenomena it is not enough just to analyze the annual change trend, the cyclical fluctuations which occur from one quarter to another or from one month to another must also be taken into account. In this context, the present paper proposes that by using statistical and econometric techniques to reveal regularities in the evolution of the agricultural monthly average income per household, the extrapolation of the investigated variable being based on it.
