ANALYSIS OF THE MACROECONOMIC EFFECTS OF POPULATION AGING IN ROMANIA USING NON-LINEAR MODELS
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Authors:
• Mariana BĂLAN, PhD Professor, email: dr.mariana.balan@gmail.com, Afiliation: “Athenaeum” University- Bucharest
• Rodica Perciun, PhD Associate Professor, email: rodica21@gmail.com, Afiliation: National Institute for Economic Research, Academy of Sciences of MoldovaPages:
• 13|24 -
Keywords: demographic ageing; vital statistics indicators; non-linear models, forecasts
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Abstract:
Demographic ageing has turned lately into an extremely sensitive and sometimes thorny issue with deep impact on all generations and on most fields of economic activity. Romania, just like any other European countries is faced currently with demographic decrease. The demographic changes of the next decades are susceptible of having a significant impact on Romania’s economic development. Demographic ageing as such, negatively affects GDP growth by diminishing factors’ entry. Moreover, this phenomenon has a negative impact on GDP per capita, especially for the future, mainly because of the decline in the employed population segment. In this context, knowing the future evolution of population plays a determinant role in adopting measures and policies for economic growth. The paper intends, in this stage of research, to analyse and forecast the demographic ageing of Romania’s population by using non-linear models.
